Grid operator says Dutch solar capacity could reach 180 GW by 2050

A new report from the Dutch Association of Grid Operators predicts strong growth for the Dutch PV sector regardless of the underlying international scenario

Total installed solar capacity in the Netherlands could reach 100 GW to 180 GW by 2050, according to a new report by Netbeheer Nederland, the national association of regional electricity and gas network operators in the Netherlands.

The report, an updated version of the study "Integrated Infrastructure Outlook 2030-2050" prepared by Dutch consultancies Berenschot and Kalavasta, outlines the prospects for climate-neutral energy supply by 2050, based on four different policy outcomes. Four growth scenarios.

The [Regional Scenario" gives the largest PV expansion forecast, with a staggering 180 GW of installed capacity. In previous versions, the scenario envisioned "only" 125 GW. The installed solar capacity will come from 58 GW of utility-scale photovoltaics and 125 GW of rooftop systems, of which 67 GW will be in commercial and industrial buildings and 58 GW will be in residential buildings.

This scenario is characterized by a high electrification of the energy system, a decline in the level of industrial activity, and the country becoming self-sufficient in electricity supply. Natural gas will still function as a back-up supply, or in the form of green gas from local biomass and green hydrogen from wind and solar power. Wind energy is expected to reach 60 GW, while backup power will be expanded to 20 GW.
Under the [National Scenario", the central government will play a leading role in the energy transition, and utility-scale renewable energy will take a larger share than distributed generation. Wind energy is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 92 GW, while solar energy will reach 172 GW, backup power will reach 18 GW and hydrogen energy will reach 15 GW.

The "European scenario" involves the theoretical introduction of a CO2 tax at EU level, and the Netherlands is expected to remain an energy importer with a preference for clean energy from Europe.

Solar deployment is expected to reach 126.3 GW, of which 35 GW will come from ground-mounted solar plants. Aggregate demand is expected to be much higher than the regional and national scenarios.

The "international scenario" assumes a fully open international market, with strong climate policies implemented globally, and the Netherlands will not be self-sufficient and will continue to rely on imports.
"Renewable energy is generated on a large scale at strategic locations around the world," the experts said, noting that installed solar capacity will reach 100 GW. [This means that the Netherlands will mainly deploy offshore wind power, as conditions in the North Sea are very favorable for international competition on price."

Residential PV will supply 55 percent of the grid's peak peak in 2040, with solar parks and other solar installations accounting for the remaining 45 percent, the researchers said.

According to the latest statistics released by the Dutch statistical agency CBS, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity in the Netherlands reached 16.5 GW by the end of June 2022, and stated that the country has installed 3,803 MW in 2021 and 3,882 MW in 2022.